With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 24.5x The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TJX) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 17x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, TJX Companies has been doing quite well of late. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as TJX Companies' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 29% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 5,165% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 8.0% each year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 10% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
In light of this, it's alarming that TJX Companies' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Final Word
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that TJX Companies currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for TJX Companies that we have uncovered.
If you're unsure about the strength of TJX Companies' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.