Ninebot Limited (SHSE:689009) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.1% to CN¥29.32 in the week after its latest yearly results. Revenues of CN¥10b fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of CN¥0.83 an impressive 20% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Ninebot's seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥13.2b in 2024. This would reflect a substantial 29% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 32% to CN¥1.09. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥13.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.08 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CN¥39.08, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Ninebot analyst has a price target of CN¥41.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥36.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ninebot's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 29% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 20% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 19% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Ninebot is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ninebot going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Even so, be aware that Ninebot is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.