There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after investigating Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Burlington Stores is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.099 = US$563m ÷ (US$7.7b - US$2.0b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to February 2024).
So, Burlington Stores has an ROCE of 9.9%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Specialty Retail industry average of 13%.
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Burlington Stores compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Burlington Stores .
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
We weren't thrilled with the trend because Burlington Stores' ROCE has reduced by 69% over the last five years, while the business employed 207% more capital. However, some of the increase in capital employed could be attributed to the recent capital raising that's been completed prior to their latest reporting period, so keep that in mind when looking at the ROCE decrease. It's unlikely that all of the funds raised have been put to work yet, so as a consequence Burlington Stores might not have received a full period of earnings contribution from it.
On a side note, Burlington Stores has done well to pay down its current liabilities to 26% of total assets. That could partly explain why the ROCE has dropped. What's more, this can reduce some aspects of risk to the business because now the company's suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of its operations. Some would claim this reduces the business' efficiency at generating ROCE since it is now funding more of the operations with its own money.
The Key Takeaway
In summary, despite lower returns in the short term, we're encouraged to see that Burlington Stores is reinvesting for growth and has higher sales as a result. These trends are starting to be recognized by investors since the stock has delivered a 29% gain to shareholders who've held over the last five years. So this stock may still be an appealing investment opportunity, if other fundamentals prove to be sound.
On a final note, we've found 2 warning signs for Burlington Stores that we think you should be aware of.
If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.