When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 17x, you may consider Kadant Inc. (NYSE:KAI) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 30.6x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, Kadant has been very sluggish. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will turn things around completely and accelerate past most others in the market. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Is There Enough Growth For Kadant?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Kadant would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 4.4%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 106% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 1.1% as estimated by the four analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 11% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's alarming that Kadant's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that Kadant currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings are highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Kadant that you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Kadant, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.