With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 30.9x XPEL, Inc. (NASDAQ:XPEL) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 17x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, XPEL has been doing quite well of late. The P/E is probably high because investors think the company will continue to navigate the broader market headwinds better than most. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Is There Enough Growth For XPEL?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like XPEL's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 28% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 189% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 11% as estimated by the two analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 11% growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it interesting that XPEL is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From XPEL's P/E?
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of XPEL's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for XPEL with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.
You might be able to find a better investment than XPEL. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.