The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhishang Securities released a research report saying that in '24, the Spring Festival sales of liquor slightly exceeded expectations, and that the 24Q1 liquor performance was highly deterministic. Currently, liquor valuations are still cost-effective, focusing on opportunities in the liquor sector where the annual quarterly report exceeds expectations. Overall, the growth of major wine companies is still showing strong resilience. It is expected that 24Q1 wine companies will still have strong performance certainty, and that the profit growth rate of some wine companies is higher than the revenue growth rate.

In terms of individual stocks, it is expected that high-end liquors will perform steadily, sub-high-end wine differentiation, and regional wines will continue to perform well. Among them, Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) /Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) /Shuijingfang (600779.SH) /Gujing Gongjiu (000596.SZ) /Jinhui Liquor (Dubai) /Elit (Shui) 24Q1 revenue and profit may be expected to grow rapidly. 603369.SH 603198.SH 603919.SH 600197.SH

The main views of Zheshang Securities are as follows:

Liquor sales in '24 slightly exceeded expectations during the Spring Festival, laying the foundation for the performance of liquor companies in the first quarter

Zheshang Securities believes that the overall repayment process in the 24Q1 liquor industry is normal, inventory removal is better than during the same period, and batch price performance has exceeded expectations. Looking at prices, high-end wine is steady, regional wine continues to perform well, and sub-high-end wine is under relative pressure.

Looking at the repayment progress: Since the first quarter is the peak season for liquor sales, we expect that the repayment schedule for high-end liquors and regional leading wines will be similar to previous years, and that the country's sub-high-end wine companies will be under relative pressure.

Looking at sales: Spring Festival liquor sales slightly exceeded expectations. The post-holiday sales performance was superior to the same period last year, benefiting from the popularity of the family banquet market. The banquet scene performed well, the gift scene showed stable performance, commercial consumption still needed to resume, and leading wine companies continued to perform well.

Looking at inventory: Due to the late Spring Festival in '24, wine companies had more time to digest inventory. Combined with sales sales during the Spring Festival and post-holiday sales slightly exceeded expectations, inventory removal after the Spring Festival was better than in the same period last year. Among them, high-end liquors and regional leading wines such as Fenjiu and Jinshiyuan performed better under the post-holiday price promotion strategy.

Looking at wholesale prices: During the Spring Festival, the wholesale price performance represented by Wuliangye slightly exceeded expectations. The 24Q1 Maotai price was generally stable. After the holiday season, there was a slight decline in batch prices at the end of March due to delivery reasons. After the holiday season, prices for major single products such as Guoyuan Sikai and Qinghua 20 increased slightly due to price increases.

Looking at it by price: Currently, high-end liquors and regional leading wines have positive potential and strong performance certainty, and the sub-high-end of pan-nationalization is still in the adjustment period of inventory removal.

① High-end wine: It is expected that Kweichow Moutai's 24Q1 payment schedule is similar to the same period in '23. Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are more active in their repayment requirements for the Spring Festival in '24. The Spring Festival both had a good start. Wuliangye's wholesale price slightly exceeded expectations, Guojiao's price performance is stable, and Maotai's wholesale price fluctuates in stages due to delivery and other reasons;

② Sub-high-end wine: Subhigh-end liquor is markedly differentiated. It is expected that Shanxi Fenjiu's repayment, sales, and inventory performance will be excellent. It is expected that the repayment process of pan-national sub-high-end wine companies such as Shide Liquor, Shui Jing Fang, and Liquor Liquor is still in the inventory removal period;

③ Regional leading wine: Regional leading wine has performed well, mainly due to the price expansion of 100-400 yuan. It is expected that major regional leading wine companies such as Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinshiyuan will have high channel management quality, excellent repayment and sales performance, and improved overall potential. Yanghe Co., Ltd. and Kouzijiya are still in the channel adjustment period.