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外盘头条:美联储官员希望今年降息前看到更多通胀放缓的数据 调查显示美国人认为需要150万美元才能舒服退休

External market headlines: Federal Reserve officials hope to see more data on slowing inflation before cutting interest rates this year. Surveys show that Americans think they need $1.5 million to retire comfortably

環球市場播報 ·  Apr 2 16:31

The main headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning include:

Federal Reserve official Mester: I hope to see more data proving that inflation is slowing before cutting interest rates three times this year

Cleveland Federal Reserve Governor Loretta Mester said she hopes to see more evidence of lower inflation before cutting interest rates. The recent data is generally in line with her expectations of slow progress against inflation.

Mester has the right to vote on monetary policy this year. She said that higher-than-expected inflation data since this year has largely confirmed that the path of falling inflation will not be easy. Mester said she still believes the inflation rate will continue to decline towards the Fed's 2% target, but the rate of decline will be slower than last year.

Mester said, “I need to see more data to boost my confidence. When more monthly data is released, we will be able to better understand whether the downward process of inflation is stalling, or whether the data at the beginning of the year reflects a temporary detour of inflation as it stabilizes.”

Morgan Stanley Slimmon: The reduction in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve bodes well for US stocks

Andrew Slimmon from Morgan Stanley Investment Management believes that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates less, it bodes well for the economy and the stock market.

Slimmon said on Tuesday, “I think a patient Federal Reserve is a clear sign of a stronger economy, and better for the stock market.”

Andrew Slimmon, managing director of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said that a patient Federal Reserve is beneficial to the stock market.

Slimmon said the reasons for reducing the number of interest rate cuts are usually optimistic. In his view, if interest rates are not cut at all this year, it means that the earnings per share of S&P 500 stocks are expected to reach 27 in early 2025

Between $5 and $280, it is reasonable for the stock market to rise, given that the market would expect these predictions.

Tesla's delivery figures have never let Wall Street down so much

Tesla delivered 386,810 cars in the first quarter of this year, the biggest difference from analysts' average expectations based on the survey since statistics were available.

Bad signs have been around for a long time. First, Tesla warned that its growth rate will drop significantly this year. The company blamed the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, saying that although car prices have been drastically lowered, many consumers are still unable to buy cars. Tesla's factory outside of Berlin has experienced production interruptions several times. Musk's rhetoric on social media platform X dissuaded some potential buyers.

In the face of this obvious resistance, most people still expect Tesla's sales to be higher than the same period last year. The result was an 8.5% year-over-year drop in delivery volume.

“No matter how you look at it, this data is ugly,” said Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management.

The European stock market declined, and the market lowered expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates

As traders re-evaluate interest rate paths, the European stock market declined, following the sharp decline in US stocks.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed down 0.8% in London. The FTSE 100 Index reached a record closing level earlier in the day, then regained gains, but it still outperformed most European markets. US 10-year Treasury yields soared to 4.4%, the highest since November.

After recent data showed the strong performance of the US economy, the market's forecast for the Fed's interest rate cut during the year was lower than that of Fed officials.

Moody's report shows that the US office vacancy rate in the first quarter was close to 20%, a record high

Moody's Analytics said in a preliminary report Monday that the vacancy rate rose to a record 19.8% from 19.6% in the previous quarter. Despite rising vacancy rates, the agency said early data showed stable quarterly commercial real estate performance.

As the hybrid work model shows greater staying power, the continued downsizing of tenants has hit the office sector. The Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle is also hurting commercial real estate. According to Moody's data, the industry's plight has caused the vacancy rate to surpass historic highs in 1986 and 1991, and there may be room for further increase.

“The pressure on office buildings isn't completely over,” Thomas LaSalvia, head of commercial real estate economics at Moody's and co-author of the report, said in an interview on Tuesday. However, he said that recent positive economic indicators will help prevent a perfect storm in the office industry.

Survey: Americans now think they need $1.5 million to retire comfortably

As rising costs weigh on budgets, retirement is even more remote for Americans.

According to a study by Northwestern Mutual, the average person now thinks they need $1.5 million to retire comfortably, which is nearly 17 times the average saver deposit of $88,400.

This gap is 16% larger than last year. As America's population over the age of 65 increases, and Americans face the prospect of longer lives and possible cuts in social security benefits, the challenge becomes more prominent.

Aditi Javeri Gokhale, chief strategy officer at Northwestern Mutual, said, “Soaring costs are putting more pressure on consumers to plan and strictly save, and we all know that as life increases, more money is needed.”

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