One thing we could say about the analysts on Ruijie Networks Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301165) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.
After the downgrade, the six analysts covering Ruijie Networks are now predicting revenues of CN¥15b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a substantial 27% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to jump 53% to CN¥1.08. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥16b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.55 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Ruijie Networks' prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥50.75 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ruijie Networks' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 27% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 18% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Ruijie Networks is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Lamentably, they also downgraded their sales forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the market itself. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of Ruijie Networks.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ruijie Networks going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.