As you might know, Danimer Scientific, Inc. (NYSE:DNMR) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Danimer Scientific missed analyst estimates, with revenues of US$47m and a statutory loss per share (eps) of US$1.52 falling 9.4% and 3.6% below expectations, respectively. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Danimer Scientific's five analysts is for revenues of US$95.8m in 2024. This would reflect a substantial 105% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$1.42 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$95.8m and losses of US$1.40 per share in 2024.
As a result, it's unexpected to see that the consensus price target fell 14% to US$2.22, with the analysts seemingly becoming more concerned about ongoing losses, despite making no major changes to their forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Danimer Scientific at US$3.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1.60. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Danimer Scientific's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 105% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.1% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.4% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Danimer Scientific to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Danimer Scientific. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Danimer Scientific going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Danimer Scientific has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.