Jinwu Financial News | According to Zheshang Securities Research, Baiguoyuan Group (02411) had revenue of 11.39 billion yuan (+1%) last year; net profit of 360 million yuan (+12%); last year's H2 revenue of 5.10 billion yuan (-6%); net profit of 100 million yuan (-22%) to mother last year. The company's 23-year results showed a “high before and after” status, mainly due to a decline in the revenue of the company's franchised stores. In addition, referring to various fruit seasons, the bank believes that the peak season for fruit consumption itself was also concentrated in the first half of the year. The company's annual gross profit margin was 11.5%, -0.1pp; net profit margin was 3.0%, +0.3pp; sales/management/R&D expense ratios were 4.2% (-0.2pp)/2.8% (-0.1pp)/1.3% (-0.3pp), respectively. Along with the enhancement of the company's brand power and the advancement of intelligent supply chain construction, the effect of operating scale was gradually unleashed.
According to the bank, the company's fruit and other food sales revenue was 11.07 billion yuan (+1%), accounting for 97.2%; royalties and franchise revenue of 140 million yuan (-14%), accounting for 1.3%; and membership revenue of 95.35 million yuan (+6%), accounting for 0.8%. Franchise stores amounted to 8.50 billion yuan (-4%), accounting for 76.8%; self-operated stores amounted to 50 billion yuan (-22%), accounting for 0.4%; regional agents amounted to 1.24 billion yuan (+15%), accounting for 11.2%; direct sales of 1.03 billion yuan (+43%); online channels amounted to 260 million yuan (-6%), accounting for 2.3%. Among them, franchise stores are +5.3%/-9.8% depending on the number of stores/same store revenue, and pressure on the same stores is dragging down apparent revenue.
The bank continued that the company will create an OMO model to help the same store recover. As a community-based fruit store, the company will continue to strengthen its diversified reach to customers and increase the frequency of consumption. In '23, the number of WeChat fans in the store exceeded 16.2 million, +26% over the same period. The Douyin channel grew significantly. The number of customers who placed orders throughout the year was +190%, and the annual retail sales volume topped the Douyin channel fruit category list.
The bank said that Baiguoyuan Group has the largest fruit retail network in the country. The upstream enters the growing side to increase bargaining power, and the downstream high-end and branding process is progressing steadily. Considering that the company will advance the brand renewal plan in 24 years, it is also expected that the focus on same-store restoration and store expansion will slow down temporarily throughout the year. The bank moderately lowered its 24-year profit forecast and continued to be optimistic about the company's flexible performance after the adjustment period. The bank expects the company's net profit to be 3.1/3.8/470 million yuan in 2024-2026, -15%/+24%/+23% year-on-year. Under the current market value, the corresponding PE is 16/13/10 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.