Air conditioning manufacturers are entering a peak production season. Demand for refrigerants has increased significantly, order volume has increased, overall supply in the market is slightly tight, and the market generally has bullish expectations.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huajin Securities released a research report saying that according to Baichuan Yingfu, air conditioning manufacturers are entering a peak production season. Demand for refrigerants has increased significantly, order volume has increased, overall market supply is slightly tight, and the market generally has bullish expectations. The refrigerant market is gradually implementing orders for the new month. Currently, prices in the domestic trade market are rising, and the foreign trade market is rising, and the trend is also warming up. The mainstream refrigerant market continued to pick up in April. It is expected that due to strong demand for production schedules in May, the shortage in the market is expected to be difficult to ease. In addition, third-generation refrigerants have begun quota management, and the concentration of each type is high. Supply-side restrictions are conducive to improving the industry's supply and demand pattern, driving a recovery in industry sentiment and corporate profit restoration.
The views of Huajin Securities are as follows:
Weather forecasts+policy expectations+export recovery, air conditioning production and production schedules have increased sharply.
According to Industry Online, household air conditioners achieved higher than expected growth in the beginning of 2024. In January-January 2024, household air conditioning production increased 16.9% year on year, domestic sales increased 16.3% year on year, exports increased 18.9% year on year, and inventory fell 9.4% year on year at the end of February. According to the latest production schedule report, the overall production schedule for the second quarter increased significantly compared to production performance in the same period last year. Household air conditioning production for 4/5/6 2024 increased 22.7%/17.7%/14.7% compared to the same period last year, respectively. Among them, domestic sales production increased by 20.9%/16.3%/13.5%, respectively, compared with domestic sales performance in the same period last year, and export production increased by 28.3%/16.7%/3.1%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. Expectations for hot weather during the peak season and the “trade-in” policy have raised the overall air conditioning industry's expectations for the market. Furthermore, stimulated by rising copper prices, some companies issued price increase notices, which also boosted the speed of dealer pick-up and payment to a certain extent. Air conditioning exports have clearly recovered. Affected by the Red Sea situation, the rise in shipping prices has encouraged European regional orders to lock in shipments ahead of schedule. In addition, European and American inventories consumed last year are also in high demand for supplies. Tourism growth and a rebound in real estate are expected to drive demand growth. The high growth in the air conditioning market will strongly drive demand for refrigerants.
Third-generation refrigerant quotas manage supply constraints and are highly concentrated.
Third-generation refrigerants will begin quota management in 2024. According to the Ministry of Environment, according to the Ministry of Environment, the production quota for third-generation refrigerants (excluding R23) accounts for 46% of the domestic production quota of 34,000 tons, and Juhua (including Zibo Feiyuan) /Sanmei Share/Haohua Technology (Sinochem Blue Sky)/Dongyue Group/ Yonghe Corporation/ Dongyue Group/ Dongyue Group/ Yonghe Corporation/ Dongyang's production quotas are 28.1/11.7/10.2/7.6/5.5/48,000 tons respectively./7%/6%, CR3 is 68%. Among them, the production quotas for the main varieties R32/R125/R134a/R143a/R152a/R227ea were 24.0/16.6/4.6/3.3/310,000 tons respectively, and the corresponding CR3 varieties were 77%/75%/87%/91%/82%/74%, respectively, and the concentration of each variety is high.
As the peak season approaches, refrigerant prices continue to rise.
According to Baichuan Yingfu, air conditioning manufacturers are entering a peak production season. Demand for refrigerants has increased significantly, order volume has increased, overall supply in the market is slightly tight, and the market generally has bullish expectations. On March 28, the average price of R22 was 2,500 yuan/ton, the same price from last week, up 2.27% from the beginning of the year; the average price of R134a was 32,500 yuan/ton, the same price from last week, up 3.17% from the previous month, and 16.07% from the beginning of the year; the average price of R125 was 44,000 yuan/ton, up 4.76% from the beginning of the year; the average price of R32 was 28,000 yuan/ton, up 7.69% from the previous month, up 7.69% from the previous month. 12.29% compared to At the beginning of the year, it rose 62.32%; the average price of R410a was 35,500 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from last week, 7.58% higher than the previous month, and 57.78% higher than at the beginning of the year. The refrigerant market is gradually implementing orders for the new month. Currently, prices in the domestic trade market are rising, and the foreign trade market is rising, and the trend is also warming up. The mainstream refrigerant market continued to pick up in April. It is expected that due to strong demand for production schedules in May, the shortage in the market is expected to be difficult to ease.
Investment advice: Third-generation refrigerants start quota management. The concentration of each type is high. Supply-side restrictions are conducive to improving the supply and demand pattern of the industry, driving the recovery of industry sentiment and corporate profit restoration. The high demand season is here, and price increases are expected to continue. It is recommended to focus on Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), Sanmei (603379.SH), Yonghe (605020.SH), Haohua Technology (), Dongyue Group (00189), Dongyue Group (00189), Dongyue (Dow), and the upstream raw material Fluorite Standard Goldstone Resources (). 600378.SH 600673.SH 603505.SH
Risk warning: policy uncertainty; demand for downstream air conditioning vehicles falls short of expectations; fourth-generation refrigerant replacement progress exceeds expectations