The Zhitong Finance App learned that on April 1, 2024, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the latest “Automobile Consumption Index”: the automobile consumption index for March 2024 was 74.7, slightly lower than the previous month, reflecting that automobile consumption demand in April was slightly lower than in March.

In March, the automobile market was boosted by consumer waits brought about by a “wave of price cuts,” and sales fell short of expectations. Major auto shows around the world opened one after another in April. The May Day holiday travel brought forward demand for car purchases, and will also have a positive effect on the automobile market in April. However, at present, there are still some price fluctuations in the terminal market. Furthermore, the specific implementation plans related to trade-in and scrapping in various regions are still unclear, so consumers have a wait-and-see attitude. The above factors will have a certain impact on the automobile market in April. It is expected that automobile sales in April will remain basically the same as in March.

Demand score index: Judging from the sub-indices that make up the automobile consumption index, the demand score index for March 2024 was 71.4, a slight increase from the previous month. The introduction of a trade-in policy will stimulate consumers' demand for trade-in; in addition, the successive launches of new models and vehicles for the May 1st holiday will also drive an increase in demand for car purchases.

Automobile Consumption Index - Demand Score Index

Store entry score index: The store entry score index for March 2024 was 78.5, a slight increase from the previous month. The weather across the country was suitable in April, and newly launched models arrived at the store one after another, which is beneficial for consumers to visit the store to see the cars.

Automobile Consumption Index - Store Entry Index Trend Chart

Purchase points index: In March 2024, the purchase points index was 77.2, down from the previous month. The wave of large-scale price cuts by car companies in March and the expiration of limited-time car purchase subsidy policies in various regions led to a certain overdraft of the April market. Currently, there are still many regions where specific “trade-in” policies are still unclear, and consumers maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

Automobile Consumption Index - Purchase Score Index Trend Chart

In March, the State Council issued a notice on the “Action Plan to Promote Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-In”, which clearly mentions “carrying out automobile trade-in”. In the long run, the introduction of the policy is conducive to stimulating the demand for replacement in the automobile market and promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the automobile industry. Shanghai, Chongqing, Jinan and other places have successively introduced “trade-in” policies and plans, and several car companies such as Chery and Dongfeng have successively launched “trade-in” promotions, which will effectively stimulate demand for swaps and drive sales growth. In the short term, the automobile market gradually became active after the Spring Festival. The opening of major auto shows and the demand for advance car purchases brought about by the May 1st holiday will all be positive factors boosting sales in April. However, the wave of large-scale price cuts in the March market and the expiration of time-limited car purchase subsidy policies in various regions had a certain impact on the April market overdraft. Currently, the new round of car purchase subsidies and specific “trade-in” policies in many places are still unclear, and consumers hold their coins to wait and see.

Based on the above, sales volume in April is expected to be basically the same as in March, and there will not be much change.