Huaan Securities is optimistic about the rapid release of new oncology products such as Luye Pharmaceuticals (02186) and Baituwei after they are launched.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaan Securities released a research report stating that it maintains Luye Pharmaceutical's (02186) “buy” rating. The estimated revenue for 2024-26 is 68.11/83.95/99.25 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother is 775/12.4/1,598 billion yuan. The bank is optimistic about the long-term value nurtured by the company in the central nervous system field, the high growth potential of overseas business, the rapid release of new oncology products such as Baituwei after launch, and the new changes brought about by improvements in the company's operations. Subsequent companies also have a number of major products that have yet to be approved. Innovative products such as oxycodone naloxone sustained-release tablets, boroga, and paliperidone microcrystals have been implemented intensively, laying the foundation for subsequent growth.
Incident: The company achieved revenue of 6.143 billion yuan in 2023, +2.70% year over year; of these, product sales revenue was 5.627 billion yuan, +11.23% year over year; net profit to mother was 533 million yuan, -11.94% year on year.
The main views of Huaan Securities are as follows:
Management efficiency continues to improve, and financial structure is significantly optimized
The cost rate during the reporting period was 74.77%, -4.16 pct; of these, the sales expense ratio was 33.47%, +3.05 pct; the management expense ratio was 10.48%, +0.74 pct; the financial expense ratio was 11.00%, +3.11 pct; the other expense ratio was 10.27%, -6.28 pct; and the R&D expense ratio was 9.55%, -4.78 pct year on year. The total R&D expenses in 2023 were 587 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 270 million yuan in absolute value. The balance ratio was 46.9%, -7.6 pct year on year, and the company's debt reduction continues.
Revenue in all three areas grew at a double-digit rate, and product sales recovered at an accelerated pace
During the reporting period, the Group's product sales in the three major fields of oncology, cardiovascular, and central nervous system all achieved double-digit growth. Revenue in the field of oncology treatment reached 2.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%. Excluding revenue from authorized cooperation, net product sales revenue was 1,920 billion yuan, an increase of 26.3% over the previous year, and the growth rate recovered significantly. Revenue from the cardiovascular system treatment sector reached 1,687 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8% over the previous year. Revenue in the field of central nervous system treatment was 1,695 billion yuan, an increase of 28.1% over the previous year, and domestic and foreign products grew strongly. Revenue in the field of metabolic therapy was 450 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.8% due to the company's current lack of research and progress in this field. The share of Liparin, the company's exclusive tumor line variety, has rebounded markedly; the exclusive cardiovascular product Sericang has gone overseas to international markets such as Central Asia and Latin America; the CNS line's original product Siricang's market position is stable, and the international market for CNS products continues to open up.
Overseas travel and innovation progress have been implemented intensively, and new products have entered a period of rapid growth
In 2023, the Group approved a total of 5 new products. The potential tumor product Pivovir was approved for listing in China for breast cancer and prostate cancer, and successfully entered the 2023 national health insurance catalogue; Zepzelca (Zepzelca) was approved for listing in Macau and Hong Kong, benefiting SCLC patients first through policies related to the Greater Bay Area, and is currently under NDA review in mainland China; the CNS patch product Lise's Tomorrow Day Patch was approved in China and has previously been marketed and sold in Japan and other countries; Rykindo (Ricotl) is expected to be approved for sale in the US Promoting global commerce between China, the US, and Europe Chemical; rotigotin patches have been approved for marketing in Europe; if Xinlin is used for depression, clinical feedback is good, it is expected to be released in 24 years.
Risk warning: risk of new drug development, risk of approval falling short of expectations, risk of rising costs, risk of fluctuating sales, risk of changes in the international situation, industry policy risks.