The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that perovskite and laminated batteries are the next generation of photovoltaics technology. The theoretical limits for single-cell perovskite batteries and stacked batteries are 33% and 44% respectively. In particular, laminated batteries have higher conversion efficiency compared to crystalline silicon batteries, and the development path of crystalline silicon in the next stage. As a new photovoltaic technology, perovskite batteries can continue to be intensively financed in the primary market against the backdrop of poor PV secondary market conditions in 2023, indicating that perovskite is more recognized by the capital market as the most promising new photovoltaic technology. After the PV market stabilizes, perovskite is expected to become a catalyst to ignite the market.

The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:

Perovskite industry chain update:

Based on commercial logic, perovskite laminated batteries are significantly improving efficiency and are the next stage route for crystalline silicon. As crystalline silicon components fall below 1 yuan/W, the cost performance logic of single-cell perovskite batteries is difficult to implement. Analogous polycrystals have been eliminated by single crystals, and it is difficult to win the low-efficiency technology route on the power plant side.

Perovskite crystalline silicon laminated batteries are compatible with existing crystalline silicon production capacity. They can be combined with existing HJT and TopCon routes, and product upgrades can be completed by adding perovskite processes on top of retaining the original production line. The efficiency of the formed laminated components is expected to reach 30% or more, which is an international difference from the original crystal silicon. Perovskite battery factories, crystal silicon manufacturers, and equipment manufacturers have agreed on the laminated route, and the laminated battery will be the next stage of photovoltaics.

Based on process evolution, the evaporation process is indispensable in the perovskite route and is the most changing process. For single batteries, leading companies have started tenders for GW-class production lines. In order to ensure battery efficiency and stability, mass production lines have added passivation layer coating to the process, and C60 is also required for superimposing electronic transmission layers. Most industry trends use evaporation solutions. The perovskite coating in the two-end laminated battery needs to be carried out on a crystalline silicon suede surface, and evaporation must be used in the suede coating. The large area of perovskite in the four-terminal stack still requires the same coating process as a single cell battery, and evaporation is highly deterministic.

The core catalysts of perovskite investment logic:

① The expansion of GW class production lines for single-cell batteries. The expansion of GW production by the leading company indicates that the industry has entered the mass production stage, and single-cell batteries will be the first to be commercialized in differentiated scenarios such as BIPV, automotive photovoltaics, and indoor photovoltaics; ② large crystalline silicon manufacturers are speeding up the layout and building 100 MW pilot lines, representing the crystalline silicon industry to form a common expectation: lamination is the next stage of photovoltaics, and clear industrial catalysts; ③ Cross-border leaders such as Ningde Era and BOE are expected to expand production rapidly after technological breakthroughs.

It is recommended to focus on perovskite battery-related targets:

① Equipment: Complete line: Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ), Jingshan Light Machinery (000821.SZ); coating: Mannst (301325.SZ), Olaide (688378.SH), Daishengda (603687.SH), microconductive nano (688147.SH); lasers: Jeput (), Delon Laser (Dubai). 688025.SH 688170.SH

② Material: TCO Glass: Jinjing Technology (600586.SH), Yaopi Glass (600819.SH).

③ Manufacturing: Hangzhou Colin (688611.SH), GCL Technology (03800).

④ Application: Jianghe Group (601886.SH).

Risk warning: There is a risk that perovskite and lamination technology will fall short of expectations, the business progress of the relevant targets will fall short of expectations, the performance of the relevant targets will fall short of expectations, and the information used in the research report will not be updated in a timely manner.