The analysts covering AK Medical Holdings Limited (HKG:1789) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business.
Following the downgrade, the current consensus from AK Medical Holdings' five analysts is for revenues of CN¥1.4b in 2024 which - if met - would reflect a major 30% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to surge 48% to CN¥0.24. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥1.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.29 in 2024. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a considerable drop in earnings per share numbers as well.
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 10% to CN¥7.93. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on AK Medical Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥10.97 and the most bearish at CN¥6.10 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting AK Medical Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 30% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.3% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 22% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect AK Medical Holdings to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. With a serious cut to this year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of AK Medical Holdings.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AK Medical Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.