The analysts covering Sunshine Insurance Group Company Limited (HKG:6963) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Sunshine Insurance Group's five analysts is for revenues of CN¥83b in 2024, which would reflect a solid 15% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 29% to CN¥0.42. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥148b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.63 in 2024. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a pretty serious reduction to revenue estimates and a pretty serious decline to earnings per share numbers as well.
The consensus price target fell 13% to CN¥4.42, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Sunshine Insurance Group at CN¥5.30 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥2.59. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Sunshine Insurance Group is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 15% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 2.8% annual decline over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% per year. So it looks like Sunshine Insurance Group is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Sunshine Insurance Group.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Sunshine Insurance Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.