Last week, you might have seen that Great Wall Motor Company Limited (HKG:2333) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.0% to HK$8.70 in the past week. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at CN¥173b, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Great Wall Motor's 34 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥211.1b in 2024. This would be a huge 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 18% to CN¥0.98. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥210.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.97 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at HK$12.29. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Great Wall Motor at HK$14.93 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$8.38. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Great Wall Motor's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 22% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 13% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Great Wall Motor to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Great Wall Motor. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Great Wall Motor analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Great Wall Motor that we have uncovered.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.