Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (HKG:168) last week reported its latest yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at CN¥34b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Tsingtao Brewery's 36 analysts is for revenues of CN¥35.8b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 5.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 17% to CN¥3.65. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥36.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.68 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at HK$76.77. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Tsingtao Brewery, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$115 and the most bearish at HK$45.92 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Tsingtao Brewery'shistorical trends, as the 5.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 5.4% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 9.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that Tsingtao Brewery is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Tsingtao Brewery. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Tsingtao Brewery analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Tsingtao Brewery you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

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