The market for Chengxin Lithium Group Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002240) shares didn't move much after it posted weak earnings recently. We did some digging, and we believe the earnings are stronger than they seem.
A Closer Look At Chengxin Lithium Group's Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
For the year to December 2023, Chengxin Lithium Group had an accrual ratio of 0.20. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥1.9b despite its profit of CN¥702.2m, mentioned above. It's worth noting that Chengxin Lithium Group generated positive FCF of CN¥696m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
Chengxin Lithium Group's profit suffered from unusual items, which reduced profit by CN¥211m in the last twelve months. If this was a non-cash charge, it would have made the accrual ratio better, if cashflow had stayed strong, so it's not great to see in combination with an uninspiring accrual ratio. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Chengxin Lithium Group took a rather significant hit from unusual items in the year to December 2023. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit look worse than its underlying earnings power.
Our Take On Chengxin Lithium Group's Profit Performance
In conclusion, Chengxin Lithium Group's accrual ratio suggests that its statutory earnings are not backed by cash flow, even though unusual items weighed on profit. Based on these factors, we think that Chengxin Lithium Group's profits are a reasonably conservative guide to its underlying profitability. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example, we've found that Chengxin Lithium Group has 3 warning signs (1 is significant!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.