As you might know, Hygeia Healthcare Holdings Co., Limited (HKG:6078) last week released its latest yearly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 2.4% short of analyst estimates at CN¥4.1b, and statutory earnings of CN¥1.08 per share missed forecasts by 7.5%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Hygeia Healthcare Holdings from 14 analysts is for revenues of CN¥5.67b in 2024. If met, it would imply a major 39% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 32% to CN¥1.43. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥5.50b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.54 in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a a major to revenue, the consensus also made a small dip in its earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target fell 7.9% to HK$55.76, suggesting that the analysts are primarily focused on earnings as the driver of value for this business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Hygeia Healthcare Holdings analyst has a price target of HK$76.95 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$39.60. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Hygeia Healthcare Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 39% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 32% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Hygeia Healthcare Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Hygeia Healthcare Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It might also be worth considering whether Hygeia Healthcare Holdings' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.