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3.9% Earnings Growth Over 5 Years Has Not Materialized Into Gains for Anhui Quanchai Engine (SHSE:600218) Shareholders Over That Period

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 28 19:14

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Anhui Quanchai Engine Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600218), since the last five years saw the share price fall 32%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 17% in the last three months.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Anhui Quanchai Engine isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

While the share price declined over five years, Anhui Quanchai Engine actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 21% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.

The modest 1.0% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. Revenue is actually up 8.9% over the time period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SHSE:600218 Earnings and Revenue Growth March 28th 2024

This free interactive report on Anhui Quanchai Engine's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Anhui Quanchai Engine the TSR over the last 5 years was -30%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While it's never nice to take a loss, Anhui Quanchai Engine shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 11% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 15%. Given the total loss of 5% per year over five years, it seems returns have deteriorated in the last twelve months. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Anhui Quanchai Engine that you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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