It's been a good week for Blue Moon Group Holdings Limited (HKG:6993) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 7.0% to HK$2.00. Revenues of HK$7.3b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at HK$0.058, missing estimates by 2.7%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Blue Moon Group Holdings after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Blue Moon Group Holdings from six analysts is for revenues of HK$7.64b in 2024. If met, it would imply a modest 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 83% to HK$0.10. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of HK$8.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.13 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target fell 18% to HK$2.36, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Blue Moon Group Holdings at HK$3.95 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$2.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Blue Moon Group Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.3% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.9% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Blue Moon Group Holdings is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Blue Moon Group Holdings. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Blue Moon Group Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Blue Moon Group Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.