The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that in the context of China's rising cross-border e-commerce logistics boom, cross-border e-commerce logistics companies with core resources and strong competitive strength will have investment opportunities and are optimistic about SF Holdings (002352.SZ), which accelerates the layout of the international market, and Yuantong Express (600233.SH), which continues to strengthen its leading advantage.
The main views of Guoxin Securities are as follows:
Industry Overview: Along with the development of B2C e-commerce in cross-border exports, the cross-border e-commerce logistics boom is on the rise.
After China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, foreign trade entered a period of accelerated development and gradually became an international trade powerhouse. As Internet technology continues to advance in international trade, cross-border e-commerce has become a major incremental contributor to China's import/export trade of goods. The share of cross-border e-commerce transactions in China's total imports and exports of goods trade gradually increased from 16% in 2014 to 42% in 2023.
In recent years, factors such as rising local prices brought about by high inflation in the US region and the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement policy have boosted the competitiveness of Chinese products. China's four major cross-border e-commerce platforms AliExpress, SHEIN, TEMU, and TikTokShop have begun to expand overseas markets. As a result, the B2C e-commerce scale of China's cross-border exports has maintained a relatively rapid growth rate of more than double digits, thus also driving China's cross-border e-commerce logistics to maintain an upward boom.
Industry status: After more than ten years of development, the cross-border e-commerce logistics industry has formed a relatively complete service system - service products are diverse and all aspects of operation are mature.
Cross-border e-commerce logistics was created along with the development of cross-border B2C e-commerce. Unlike traditional international trade logistics, it has many logistics links, long chains, and high service quality requirements, making it more difficult to operate cross-border e-commerce logistics. Therefore, the logistics cost of cross-border B2C e-commerce accounts for about 20-25% of the operating costs, while domestic express logistics costs generally account for less than 5% of the unit price of e-commerce customers. According to estimates, China's cross-border export B2C e-commerce logistics market is over 600 billion yuan.
Since the development of China's cross-border e-commerce logistics industry before 2010, the entire chain service system has been continuously improved, and four diversified service models have been formed: postal parcels, international express delivery, special line parcels, and overseas warehouses. Various logistics links such as first-haul transportation, customs clearance, cross-border trunk line transportation, warehousing management, and last-end delivery have also matured.
Industry trends: 1) The share of dedicated packages and overseas warehouse models will continue to rise; 2) Strong demand for cross-border e-commerce air transport has led to a tight balance between supply and demand for air cargo in China; 3) The e-commerce platform full hosting model will benefit logistics enterprises with core resources in the entire cross-border logistics chain.
In the future, the most common logistics models used by B2C e-commerce for cross-border exports will be cross-border special packages and overseas warehouses. Both are cost-effective products with fast time-sensitive services and relatively low logistics costs. China's international air cargo market benefits from the strength of cross-border e-commerce platforms. The growth rate of demand is expected to be higher than the growth rate of supply, and the tight balance between supply and demand will support the performance of international air freight rates.
Under the full hosting model, the cross-border e-commerce platform has the right to distribute orders. The platform will tend to cut logistics links and then use resource cards in different logistics links. Therefore, logistics companies with core resources at a core node in the cross-border logistics link will enjoy the benefits of increased revenue and increased profitability brought about by increased demand.
Market pattern: Due to the long and complex logistics chain of cross-border e-commerce, there are many players in this market, and the competitive pattern in different areas is different.
1) Traditional freight forwarding has entered the field of cross-border e-commerce logistics, and the freight forwarding market itself is competitive and scattered. China's representative enterprises include Sinotrans, Huamao Logistics, etc.; 2) The cross-border e-commerce logistics integrated service provider market presents the characteristics of “big industry and small company”. China's representative companies include Zongteng Group, SF Logistics, etc.; 3) China's civil aviation cargo market competition pattern is concentrated. China's representative companies include China Eastern Airlines Logistics, China Southern Airlines Logistics, China Cargo Airlines, SF Express, etc.;
4) The overseas warehouse market presents a unique pattern of Amazon FBA. In addition, there are third party overseas warehouse operators such as Dajian Cloud Warehouse; 5) The competition situation in the last-mile delivery market in different destination countries is different. Competition in the European and American express delivery market is concentrated and dominated by local companies. Competition in the Southeast Asian market is scattered, and Chinese logistics companies have successfully entered and taken the lead in development.
Risk warning:
1. Overseas policy risks; 2. Demand growth in cross-border e-commerce fell short of expectations; 1. Supply growth exceeded expectations.