The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Hunan Zhongke Electric Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300035) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
What Is Hunan Zhongke Electric's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Hunan Zhongke Electric had debt of CN¥2.29b at the end of September 2023, a reduction from CN¥2.97b over a year. On the flip side, it has CN¥791.7m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥1.50b.
How Strong Is Hunan Zhongke Electric's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Hunan Zhongke Electric had liabilities of CN¥3.09b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥2.33b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥791.7m in cash and CN¥2.60b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥2.03b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit isn't so bad because Hunan Zhongke Electric is worth CN¥6.33b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Weak interest cover of 0.19 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 8.8 hit our confidence in Hunan Zhongke Electric like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Worse, Hunan Zhongke Electric's EBIT was down 96% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Hunan Zhongke Electric can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Hunan Zhongke Electric burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Hunan Zhongke Electric's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its level of total liabilities is not so bad. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like Hunan Zhongke Electric has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 1 warning sign with Hunan Zhongke Electric , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.