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China South Publishing & Media Group's (SHSE:601098) Three-year Total Shareholder Returns Outpace the Underlying Earnings Growth

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 27 21:02

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. For example, the China South Publishing & Media Group Co., Ltd (SHSE:601098) share price is up 19% in the last three years, clearly besting the market decline of around 20% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 11% in the last year , including dividends .

In light of the stock dropping 3.0% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, China South Publishing & Media Group achieved compound earnings per share growth of 8.6% per year. The average annual share price increase of 6% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So it seems investors have become more cautious about the company, over time.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SHSE:601098 Earnings Per Share Growth March 28th 2024

We know that China South Publishing & Media Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for China South Publishing & Media Group the TSR over the last 3 years was 44%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that China South Publishing & Media Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 11% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 4%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Before forming an opinion on China South Publishing & Media Group you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.

But note: China South Publishing & Media Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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