The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester Material Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600370) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester MaterialLtd Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester MaterialLtd had CN¥5.76b of debt, up from CN¥2.07b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥2.22b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥3.54b.
How Strong Is Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester MaterialLtd's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester MaterialLtd had liabilities of CN¥6.31b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥3.22b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥2.22b in cash and CN¥3.55b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥3.78b.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester MaterialLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥7.64b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Strangely Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester MaterialLtd has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 5.0, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 1k. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. Shareholders should be aware that Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester MaterialLtd's EBIT was down 92% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester MaterialLtd will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester MaterialLtd burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester MaterialLtd's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester MaterialLtd to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 4 warning signs with Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester MaterialLtd (at least 3 which are concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.