As you might know, Medlive Technology Co., Ltd. (HKG:2192) recently reported its full-year numbers. The result was positive overall - although revenues of CN¥412m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Medlive Technology surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CN¥0.33 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Medlive Technology from three analysts is for revenues of CN¥506.6m in 2024. If met, it would imply a major 23% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 23% to CN¥0.26 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥503.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.21 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the sizeable expansion in earnings per share expectations following these results.
The consensus price target was unchanged at HK$10.08, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Medlive Technology at HK$10.29 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$9.96. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Medlive Technology'shistorical trends, as the 23% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 23% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 20% annually. It's clear that while Medlive Technology's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Medlive Technology's earnings potential next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$10.08, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Medlive Technology. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Medlive Technology going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Medlive Technology (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.