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FreightCar America, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:RAIL) Shares Leap 25% Yet They're Still Not Telling The Full Story

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 27 07:16

FreightCar America, Inc. (NASDAQ:RAIL) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 25% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 29%.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, FreightCar America may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x, since almost half of all companies in the Machinery industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 1.6x and even P/S higher than 4x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

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NasdaqGS:RAIL Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 27th 2024

What Does FreightCar America's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

FreightCar America could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. Perhaps the P/S remains low as investors think the prospects of strong revenue growth aren't on the horizon. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on FreightCar America will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?

FreightCar America's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 1.8% decrease to the company's top line. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 230% overall rise in revenue, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would definitely welcome the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the dual analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 39% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 1.5% growth forecast for the broader industry.

In light of this, it's peculiar that FreightCar America's P/S sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

What Does FreightCar America's P/S Mean For Investors?

FreightCar America's stock price has surged recently, but its but its P/S still remains modest. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

To us, it seems FreightCar America currently trades on a significantly depressed P/S given its forecasted revenue growth is higher than the rest of its industry. The reason for this depressed P/S could potentially be found in the risks the market is pricing in. It appears the market could be anticipating revenue instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for FreightCar America that we have uncovered.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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