Jinwu Financial News | According to the Huaxi Securities Research Report, the recent decline in Shenzhou International (02313) stock prices is mainly affected by short-term effects such as a phased slowdown in overseas orders, Vietnam's cancellation of income tax concessions, and whether domestic production capacity can be filled. In the long run, what is more noteworthy is that the company's customer share increase based on the rapid reaction capacity of the supply chain and expansion from cotton spinning to chemical fiber, etc., which has been verified during the 15-year warm winter and the 20-22 epidemic in history.
According to the bank, the company can cover the entire garment foundry industry chain, and in particular, successfully enter the most complex fabric circuit. The bank believes that the company's growth is mainly driven by: (1) in the short term, the pressure on overseas inventories is gradually improving, which is expected to usher in an inflection point in orders; (2) in the medium to long term, judging from the increase in production capacity and output, the expansion of overseas bases in Vietnam and Cambodia plus the renewal and transformation of production facilities at domestic bases continues to improve efficiency. Judging from the increase in customer share, the share share among old customers has increased and the expansion of new customers. (3) Net interest rates are still resilient.
The bank expects the company's 24-26 revenue to be 278.19/319.76/36.614 billion yuan, net profit of $53.04/61.90/7.198 billion yuan, corresponding to the 2024-2026 EPS of $3.53/4.12/4.79, comprehensive relative valuation and absolute valuation. The bank gave the company a target price of HK$93-100 (exchange rate of HK$1 = RMB 0.92) for the first time, and gave it a “buy” rating.