Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600961) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
What Is Zhuzhou Smelter GroupLtd's Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Zhuzhou Smelter GroupLtd had CN¥2.95b in debt in September 2023; about the same as the year before. However, it does have CN¥739.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥2.21b.
How Strong Is Zhuzhou Smelter GroupLtd's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Zhuzhou Smelter GroupLtd had liabilities of CN¥4.03b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.43b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥739.5m as well as receivables valued at CN¥607.6m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥4.11b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Zhuzhou Smelter GroupLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥11.7b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Zhuzhou Smelter GroupLtd has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.4 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 4.4 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Even worse, Zhuzhou Smelter GroupLtd saw its EBIT tank 62% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Zhuzhou Smelter GroupLtd can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Zhuzhou Smelter GroupLtd actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
Our View
Neither Zhuzhou Smelter GroupLtd's ability to grow its EBIT nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Zhuzhou Smelter GroupLtd is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Zhuzhou Smelter GroupLtd (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.