Bank France and Morgan Stanley downgraded Hershey's ratings.
Zhitong Finance learned that BNP Paribas downgraded Hershey's (HSY.US) rating from “outperforming the market” to “neutral” on Tuesday because the recent surge in cocoa prices does not appear to be a temporary factor caused by the natural environment. Previously, Morgan Stanley also downgraded Hershey's stock rating from “holding and waiting” to “reducing holdings,” citing several risks that hindered Hershey's medium-term prospects, including “excessive” inflation in cocoa prices.
Cocoa futures prices have more than doubled this year, breaking the $10,000 per ton mark for the first time in history on Tuesday, then regaining gains and taking a break from the historic rise. Meanwhile, Hershey's stock price has risen only 2.4% since the beginning of January, underperforming the S&P 500 index and the large consumer necessities index.
“The implementation of EU deforestation regulations is increasing the structural costs of the system,” wrote Max Gumport, an analyst at BNPP Exane, a securities subsidiary of Agence France and Pakistan, in a note to clients. Earlier, BNPP Exane had an expert conference call with Marc Donaldson, former executive director of the Asian Cocoa Association and managing director of Bellagio Asia Pacific.
He said that due to EU regulations, “a large part of the increase in cocoa prices we are currently seeing is likely to be structural.” This is a “shift” in his position. Previously, he believed that “the vast majority” of the rise in cocoa prices may be due to a “temporary imbalance between supply and demand” associated with unfavorable weather in West Africa.
Due to the structural rise in cocoa prices, Gumport lowered his forecast for Hershey's 2025 adjusted earnings per share by 9% to $9.59; the data showed that this was the low point expected by Wall Street, and analysts' general expectation for Apple's earnings per share next year was $10.19.
In an earnings call on February 8, Hershey Buck, CEO of Hershey Buck, said the company would use “every tool in its toolbox”, including raising prices, to combat investment inflation. Hershey CFO Steve Voskuil added: “If prices rise further, it will be better for the second half of this year, and probably 2025.”
However, these remarks were not enough to allay Morgan Stanley's concerns. A few days after the results meeting, Morgan Stanley downgraded Hershey's stock rating from “holding and waiting” to “reducing holdings,” citing several risks that hindered Hershey's medium-term prospects, including “excessive” inflation in cocoa prices. According to the data, Hershey's current rating has 6 “buy” ratings, 19 “hold” ratings, and 1 “sell” rating.