The Zhitong Finance App learned that the Hong Kong Property Price Index reported 302.5 points in February, down 1.69% from the previous month. The index fell for 10 months, with a cumulative decline of about 14.6%, continuing to be the longest decline in more than 20 years. The index hit a new low of more than 7 years after September 2016, about 24% lower than the historical high. Chen Yongjie, Vice Chairman of the Asia Pacific Region of Central Plains Real Estate and CEO of the Housing Department, said that the Hong Kong government resolutely announced the complete withdrawal of the property market in the late February budget. The property market situation has been completely different. As US interest rates have peaked and interest rates are expected to be cut, the property market clearly regained prosperity in March. The Hong Kong property price index will reflect the new situation in the property market after the removal of China. The index is expected to stop falling and stabilize, or even rise slightly.

Chen Yongjie pointed out that after the removal of the country, the Hong Kong property market was clearly different, and there were major breakthroughs in second-hand transactions. In the primary market, more than 3,760 first-hand transactions have been recorded from February 28 to now. The total number of first-hand transactions in March alone has exceeded 3,600, setting a new high of more than ten years after the implementation of the first-hand residential sales regulations, and the volume is breaking the new high day by day. It is estimated that first-hand transactions will reach 4,000 in the whole month. Currently, end-of-sale sales are strong. It is estimated that the number of first-hand transactions in the whole month may also reach 5,000. After the removal of spicy food, the developers adopted an active sales strategy. There were no price increases or price cuts, and restraint was maintained, so the delivery situation was ideal.

The volume of transactions also increased dramatically after the withdrawal of the second-hand market. Central Plains real estate transactions surged about 4 times compared to February. The second-hand market transactions in March are expected to be about 4,000, a significant increase from about 1,500 in February. A total of about 8,000 first-hand and second-hand transactions are expected in March.

Yeung Ming-yee, senior co-director of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Department, also pointed out that in February 2024, Hong Kong registered 930 mortgage contracts for existing second-hand private homes, a year-on-month decrease of 13.6%, and was at a low level of around 1,000 for four consecutive months. It is estimated that there were 3,300 cases in the first quarter of this year, similar to 3,394 cases in the fourth quarter of 2023, and at a low level of nearly five years. However, the seasonal boom after the Lunar New Year, and the Hong Kong government's withdrawal of spicy and pressure-free tests, the property market quickly revived, and sales increased markedly, which is expected to boost demand for existing second-hand property mortgages. The second quarter is expected to rise back to about 6,000 cases, rising to an average of around 2,000 cases per month.

Furthermore, Chen Yongjie also said that from suppressing demand in the past to the current normalization of the property market, the market has accumulated a large amount of purchasing power. In addition, US interest rates have peaked, and interest rates will be cut in the second half of the year, which will have a positive impact on the property market. I believe there will be no sharp rise in property prices after the withdrawal of spicy food, and the performance will gradually stabilize. Currently, property prices have fallen by about 25% compared to the peak. The decline in property prices is expected to narrow to about 20% in June. If the boom continues, it is expected to recover the 15% decline by the end of the year, and still fall by about 10% from the peak, and the overall development of the property market will be healthier.