Maintaining the original L-shaped forecast for this year's property price trend, there is still an opportunity for property prices to fall by 3% to 5% in the first half of the year, stabilized slightly in the second half of the year, and is expected to remain flat or fall by up to 5% throughout the year.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Wang Zhaoqi, director of Knight Frank and head of the Greater China Research and Consulting Department, pointed out that the Hong Kong Differential Assessment Authority's property price index fell by another 1.7% month-on-month, and has declined by about 13.7% since May last year. Property prices continued to fall due to factors such as high interest rates, insufficient purchasing power, and end-of-stock hoarding of new inventory. However, after the Hong Kong budget was completely lifted, the market's desire to buy increased markedly, and the atmosphere in the property market improved markedly, but in the short term, second-hand property prices will continue to weaken due to first-hand sales. Maintaining the original forecast that this year's property price trend was L-shaped, there is still a chance that property prices will fall by 3% to 5% in the first half of the year, stabilize slightly in the second half of the year, and remain flat or fall by up to 5% throughout the year.
Wang Zhaoqi added that the market expects the US to cut interest rates 3 times this year. It is expected that Hong Kong will cut interest rates in the second half of the year as soon as possible. It is expected that high interest rate factors will continue to affect car buyers, property exchangers, and new mortgages in the first half of the year. The overall purchasing power of the market was still insufficient before interest rate cuts. The volume of first-hand and second-hand transactions is expected to be around 48,000 to 53,000 units this year.
However, developers actively reduce prices and are affected by end-of-stock hoarding. I believe they will provide more discounts and financial plans to attract buyers during marketing.
In terms of the rental market, the Hong Kong Government's Talented Talent Program has revived the workforce and the number of high-income earners, and there continues to be rigid support for residential rental demand. It is expected that rents will rise by 5% to 8% this year, and the overall return on rent will rise to nearly 3%. The increase in rent for small and medium-sized homes will outperform luxury homes, and the trend of residential rents will remain stable in the coming months.