Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000975) just released its latest annual report and things are not looking great. Yintai Gold reported an earnings miss, with CN¥8.1b revenues falling 16% short of analyst models, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.51 also coming in slightly below expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Yintai Gold's eleven analysts is for revenues of CN¥10.1b in 2024. This would reflect a huge 24% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 36% to CN¥0.70. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥10.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.65 in 2024. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.
There's been a 8.0% lift in the price target to CN¥18.86, with the analysts signalling that the higher earnings forecasts are more relevant to the business than the weaker revenue estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Yintai Gold, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥21.50 and the most bearish at CN¥16.65 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Yintai Gold is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Yintai Gold's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 24% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 13% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Yintai Gold is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Yintai Gold's earnings potential next year. They also downgraded Yintai Gold's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Yintai Gold analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Yintai Gold has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.