Jinwu Financial News | According to Tianfeng Securities Research Report, Kingdee International (00268) published an annual report and achieved revenue of 5.679 billion yuan in 23, yoy +16.7%. The company had a net loss of 210 million yuan to its mother in '23, a year-on-year decrease of 179 million yuan; net cash flow from operating activities was 653 million yuan, an increase of 74.5% over the previous year. Contract liabilities reached $3.177 billion, yoy +20.74%.
According to the bank, considering the high gross profit of the subscription business and the decline in IaaS costs, gross margin is expected to enter a long-term improvement channel. In terms of cost, considering the improvement in R&D efficiency and the gradual maturity of products, there is still room for a decline in R&D expenses. In terms of numbers, the company added less than 5% in 2023, and the subscription business model determines the demand for future personnel is also limited. Based on this, the bank is optimistic that the company will achieve a V-shaped reversal of cash flow to profit from 2024 to 2026; in fact, the company's losses have narrowed markedly in the second half of 2023.
Considering the company's proposed strategic goals of “subscription first, AI first”, the bank believes that the company may be more cautious in business choices, adjusting the company's 2024/2025 revenue forecast to 66.3/7.725 billion yuan (original forecast of 7.594/9.418 billion yuan), adding an additional 2026 revenue forecast of 8.971 billion yuan, and adjusting the company's 2024/2025 net profit forecast to -0.4/60 million yuan (originally forecast of 100/350 million yuan), and added a 2026 net profit forecast of 560 million yuan. Maintain a “buy” rating.