CITIC Heavy Industries Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:601608) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 47.5x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 31x and even P/E's below 19x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, CITIC Heavy Industries has been doing very well. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Is There Enough Growth For CITIC Heavy Industries?
CITIC Heavy Industries' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 159% gain to the company's bottom line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 96% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 39% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.
With this information, we find it concerning that CITIC Heavy Industries is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
The Key Takeaway
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
We've established that CITIC Heavy Industries currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with CITIC Heavy Industries.
If you're unsure about the strength of CITIC Heavy Industries' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.