It's been a good week for E-Star Commercial Management Company Limited (HKG:6668) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 8.3% to HK$1.31. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at CN¥635m, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the latest results, E-Star Commercial Management's dual analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥709.0m in 2024. This would be a notable 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 13% to CN¥0.19. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥705.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.19 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at HK$2.10.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 12% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that E-Star Commercial Management is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for E-Star Commercial Management that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.