[Anatomy Board]

The Federal Reserve raised the US GDP growth forecast for 2024 sharply to 2.1%. The US manufacturing PMI hit a new high in nearly two years in March, and the three major US stock indices reached new highs. Hong Kong stocks pulled over, jumping low and falling 2.16%.

Hong Kong stocks were hit hard yesterday when they just picked up a bit: US congressmen put forward a bill requiring the Index Mutual Fund to exclude Chinese stocks. Mutual funds, similar to domestic public funds, are huge in size. When this news came out, it directly caused China Securities to plummet. In fact, such proposals are made every year, but in the end, few are passed. Because this process is quite lengthy, it needs to be approved by relevant committees in the House of Representatives, then passed collectively, then transferred to the Senate for approval, and finally signed by the President before it officially takes effect. If any link is blocked, it will be aborted.

Also, from a realistic point of view, the game of major powers has not deteriorated to this level. Any reason to exclude Chinese stocks can only be understood as minor actions that simply want to short the stock market, and it has also fattened up a number of institutions that are shorting. CXO varieties bore the brunt. Pharmacosomics all dropped by 8 points, directly leading to innovative drugs.

The house leak coincided with overnight rain, and the SNB unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark interest rate from 1.75% to 1.5%, making it the first developed country to cut interest rates. Switzerland's “inability to take the lead” in cutting interest rates means that the European economy may weaken, or that more central banks may follow suit to cut interest rates. Comparatively speaking, the US dollar is stronger. As expected, Asian currencies are weakening collectively, with the Korean won leading the decline. The exchange rate of the won against the US dollar once fell 1.3%, the biggest decline since the beginning of February. The exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar once fell by 1.2%, the lowest level in 5 months. The offshore renminbi fell below 7.26 against the US dollar, reaching a low of 7.2642, falling more than 400 points during the day.

According to the Securities Daily, there are rumors that several public offerings in Beijing and Shanghai have been inspected by local securities regulatory bureaus. This is a routine inspection, not a surprise inspection. This move is also one of the important measures to strictly monitor the market in accordance with the law. At the same time, a piece of news about “the regulatory authorities recently surveyed domestic leaders to quantify private placement” was also spreading in the industry. According to multiple quantitative private equity research, I learned that the relevant news is true, “but more of a discussion, visit, and research nature.” From public placement to private placement, the main purpose of the investigation and mapping by the Securities Regulatory Bureau is to regulate its operations. It is hoped that such institutions will become a force to stabilize the market rather than disrupt the market and short the market.

Will this news cause irregular positions to be thrown out? This is hard to say. The market is falling anyway. As far as public funds are concerned, there used to be “mouse warehouses,” but this should be relatively rare now, but as far as private equity is concerned, it's hard to say. If it's true, you can always find the problem. Under stricter regulations, many irregular businesses of financial institutions such as securities and insurance are estimated to be suppressed. Today, CICC (03908) and China Taibao (02601) both declined by more than 4 points. Furthermore, it is rumored that PricewaterhouseCoopers played a role in the Evergrande fraud case. It is not ruled out that other listed companies will be involved, and market sentiment will definitely have an impact.

Yesterday, it was revealed that Ali reduced its holdings of Xiaopeng Motors (09868). Today, it was also reported in the market that Alibaba will sell part of its shares in Bilibili (Station B) to raise capital of 357.8 million US dollars. Specifically, Alibaba will sell 30.85 million Bilibili of American Depositary Receipts (ADR) at a price of $11.60 each. Ali's move was also a response to pressure. Under the cold winter, the giants had no food left over. Investors should pay attention to the types of investments held by relevant giants in the future.

Ideal Auto (02015) has recently dropped dramatically, and today it is over 10 points. Li Xiang responded to the recent poor sales volume: Ideal MEGA had a rhythm problem and mistakenly treated Ideal MEGA's stage 0 to 1 (commercial verification period) as operating from stage 1 to 10 (period of rapid development). How do you say this? Following successful experiences, copying itself is common inertial thinking.

The point is that I didn't expect Huawei's performance to be this strong. On March 22, Huawei announced that after 86 days of launching the M9, Dading had already surpassed 60,000 units. Recently, there was news that the Zhijie S7 will be launched again on April 8, and more feature upgrades will be completed. The price of the Zhijie S7, which was launched “twice”, will not be adjusted, but the entry-level model is expected to have some additional features, and all models will also undergo some OTA software upgrades. The order was robbed by Huawei, and the price itself is high. The cost performance ratio is not high; it is time to make adjustments.

Microsoft's first batch of AI computers unveiled: one-click Copilot takes flight and goes directly to AI assistants. The era of AI empowering Windows PCs has begun. Blessed by Intel Core Ultra, you can't buy it in retail stores. The “AMD AI PC Innovation Summit” officially opened in Beijing. AMD's board chairman and CEO Lisa Su (Lisa Su), the “best female semiconductor leader”, attended the speech. Expanding the Ryzen AI ecosystem with OEM partners such as Lenovo was mentioned. Lenovo Group announced that the company will launch a new AI PC product at the Lenovo Innovation and Technology Conference on April 18. AI PCs are a new direction for the future of computers. Driven by AI, a new wave of switching will begin to emerge. As the most authentic target, the prospects for Lenovo Group (00992) are promising.

Due to a series of major anti-monopoly attacks in Europe and the US, Apple fell more than 4%, the worst in seven months. It “lost blood” of 110 billion US dollars a day, but it did not affect the industrial chain. The core supplier, Gaowei Electronics (01415), bucked the trend and rose more than 5 points today. The reason is that Vision Pro is progressing more than expected. Some agencies predict that sales will reach 600,000 units in 2024. The company will provide multiple camera assemblies for Vision Pro, and downstream product launch will drive the company's performance to a new high.

Under today's sharp drop, only a few varieties can withstand the pressure. For example, yesterday's section focused on the gaming category. Among them, the first choice item ordered, MGM China (02282), surged 6.89%. Wynn Macau (01128) and Sands China (01928) all had more than one point. The PCB Jiantao laminated board (01888) mentioned in the past two days increased by another 4.66%. Currently, the relatively tough ones are varieties with strong performance, such as Ruisheng Technology (02018). However, the activity of Ning Meng Film and Television (09857) over the past two days was driven by the popularity of A-share skits. The upcoming market mainly depends on what policies are in place to hedge against related risks.

[Sector Focus]

The National Energy Administration issued the “Guiding Opinions on Energy Work 2024", which proposes to accelerate the cultivation of new energy business formats and models. Strengthen the follow-up and evaluation of new energy storage pilot demonstrations, and promote the progress of the new energy storage technology industry. Prepare relevant policies to accelerate the high-quality development of the hydrogen energy industry, promote hydrogen energy technology innovation and industrial development in an orderly manner, steadily carry out hydrogen energy pilot demonstrations, focus on developing hydrogen production from renewable energy sources, and expand hydrogen energy application scenarios.

Hydrogen energy is a key development direction for the country in the future, but specific supporting policies are also needed. Main varieties: CIMC Enric (03899), Dongyue Group (00189), Dongfang Electric (01072), China Xuyang Group (01907).

[Individual Stock Nuggets]

China Construction International (03311): Strong increase in 2023 results, maintaining positive net operating cash flow

The company achieved a turnover of HK$113,734 billion in 2023, up 11.53% year on year; profit attributable to shareholders was HK$9.164 billion, up 15.17% year on year; basic profit per share was HK$1.82; and a final dividend of HK$28.5 per share was planned.

Comment: In recent years, the Hong Kong government of China has actively promoted large-scale construction plans such as the Northern Metropolitan Area, and the company has received several large-scale projects in the Northern Metropolitan Area. With strong technical strength in the field of medical construction, it continues to benefit from the “Ten-Year Hospital Development Plan”, and has also performed well in the field of traditional housing construction. It has won bids for many public and private housing, including the first batch of simple public housing projects, the largest Kai Tak World Express Road project.

Hong Kong, China, Macau, and Mainland China remained the Group's core business and major contributors during the year, accounting for 27.1%, 9.5% and 58.2% of the Group's turnover, respectively. The Hong Kong market in China reached HK$70.921 billion in new contracts for the full year of '23. It landed in the southern section of the East Light Rail Line, the largest civil engineering project of the year in Macau, China. The company obtained the only hospital project - the Outlying Islands Medical Complex Rehabilitation Hospital, further consolidating its leading position in the industry. Macau, China signed new contracts of HK$9.541 billion throughout the year, continuing to maintain its leading position in the Macau market.

The company's operating cash inflow was 500 million yuan, higher than in 2022; it was surprising that the operating cash flow in mainland China was positive for the first time. The dividend for the period was $0.56, and the annual dividend rate was 30.8%, 0.4 percentage points higher than in 2022. The management maintained its forecast for new contract sales of 210 billion yuan and net profit growth in double digits this year. The Group's target for next year is 50% of the new contracts coming from technology-based projects.