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Redwire Corporation (NYSE:RDW) Soars 44% But It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 22 07:42

The Redwire Corporation (NYSE:RDW) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 44%. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 43%.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, Redwire's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.1x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the Aerospace & Defense industry in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 2.1x and even P/S above 5x are quite common. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:RDW Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 22nd 2024

How Has Redwire Performed Recently?

With revenue growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Redwire has been doing relatively well. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to dive, which has kept the P/S suppressed. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Keen to find out how analysts think Redwire's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Is There Any Revenue Growth Forecasted For Redwire?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as low as Redwire's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 52%. Spectacularly, three year revenue growth has ballooned by several orders of magnitude, thanks in part to the last 12 months of revenue growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 19% each year as estimated by the five analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 8.3% per year growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this information, we find it odd that Redwire is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

The Final Word

The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Redwire's P/S close to the industry median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

A look at Redwire's revenues reveals that, despite glowing future growth forecasts, its P/S is much lower than we'd expect. The reason for this depressed P/S could potentially be found in the risks the market is pricing in. It appears the market could be anticipating revenue instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Redwire has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Redwire's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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