Jinwu Financial News | According to Open Source Securities Research, Li Ning (02331) achieved revenue of 27.598 billion yuan (+7% year over year, same below), net profit of 3.187 billion yuan (-21.6%), net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 3,046 billion yuan (-25%), net profit margin of 11.5% (-4.2pct), and dividend rate of 45% in 2023.
According to the bank, the company's gross profit margin in 2023 was 48.4%, the same year on year. The main reason was that the average online discount deepened orders due to increased e-commerce competition. The sales/management/finance expense ratio was 32.9%/4.6%/1.2%, the year-on-year ratio was +4.6pct/basic flat/-0.1pct, the operating profit margin was 12.9% (-6pct), and the net profit margin was 11.5% (-4.2pct). Operating capacity: Omni-channel inventory in 2023 compared to 3.6 months, channel inventory decreased by the number of units compared to the end of 2022. The company's inventory was 2.63 billion yuan (+3%), and the company's inventory/receivables/accounts payable turnover days was 63/15/43 days (-5/-1/+1). Net cash was 17.98 billion yuan (-5.6%), net operating cash flow was 4.69 billion yuan (+19.8%), and cash was abundant.
Considering that 2023 commodity control and wholesale revenue fell short of expectations, the bank lowered 2024-2025 and added profit forecasts for 2026. The net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 33.4/38.4/4.35 billion yuan (previously 45.0/5.33 billion yuan), corresponding EPS is 1.3/1.5/1.7 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 15.1/13.1/11.6 times. It is expected that 2023Q4 offline discounts will improve the number of units. The channel inventory is back healthy, and the 28 IPs of the new iteration in 2024Q1 are effective Price control (accounting for nearly 45% of footwear), maintaining a “buy” rating.