The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report stating that according to TrendForce data, looking back at 2023 panel prices, early October was the highest TV panel price in 2023. The average price of 65-inch/55-inch/43-inch/32-inch TV panels in early October 2023 was 169 US dollars/126 US dollars/66 US dollars/38 US dollars, respectively. In late March '24, the price of 65/ 55 inches had already surpassed the high of 2023. On the supply side, the competitive pattern in the LCD panel industry is stable, and domestic price alliances continue. It is expected that panel manufacturers will continue to rationally adjust operations and control inventory and output. Demand is growing steadily in the short cycle. It is expected to rise slowly in the future. The price increase and pace depend on the dynamic game between panel manufacturers and brand manufacturers. Looking at the improvement of the LCD supply and demand pattern in the long run, the value of the midstream manufacturing chain is prominent.

The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:

In late March, TV and monitor panel prices rose, while notebook panel prices remained unchanged

On March 20, TrendForce released the latest panel price data. On the TV side: The average price of a 65-inch/55-inch/43-inch/32-inch TV panel was 171 USD/127 USD/64 USD/36 respectively, up 3 USD/2 USD/1 USD/1 USD from the initial price, respectively, and 5 USD/3 USD/2 USD/1 USD from the February price. On the display side: The average price of a 27-inch/23.8-inch IPS panel was 62 US dollars/48.3 US dollars respectively, up 0.4 US dollars from the early days. For notebooks, the average price of a 17.3-inch TN panel/15.6-inch IPS panel/14.0-inch TN panel/11.6-inch TN panel is $38.3/$40.4/$26.6/$24.8 respectively.

The price of large panels continues to rise, and the price of 65-inch/55-inch TV panels has surpassed last year's high

In terms of large-size LCDs, panel manufacturers took a day off during the Spring Festival and continued to implement the consensus of on-demand production, dynamic production control, and healthy development. After the Spring Festival, industry inventories were reasonable, and the downstream procurement boom rebounded. Panel manufacturers promoted the balance between supply and demand for large-size panels through production control, driving panel prices to rise. According to TrendForce data, looking back at 2023 panel prices, early October was the highest TV panel price in 2023. The average price of 65-inch/55-inch/43-inch/32-inch TV panels in early October 2023 was 169 US dollars/126 US dollars/66 dollars/38 US dollars, respectively. In late March '24, the price of 65 inch/55” already surpassed the high of 2023.

Q2 price increases are expected to continue. Looking at the LCD supply and demand pattern improving in the long run

On the demand side, demand for TVs improved in 2024, and downstream TV was catalyzed. The European Cup and Paris Olympics will be held one after another in June. Considering the normal overseas promotional preparation and transportation cycle, it is expected that Q2 will continue to prepare and produce materials, and downstream customers will still need to pick up goods at low inventory levels. On the supply side, the competitive pattern in the LCD panel industry is stable, and domestic price alliances continue. It is expected that panel manufacturers will continue to rationally adjust operations and control inventory and output. Demand is growing steadily in the short cycle. It is expected to rise slowly in the future. The price increase and pace depends on the dynamic game between panel manufacturers and brand manufacturers. Looking at the improvement of the LCD supply and demand pattern in the long run, the value of the midstream manufacturing chain is prominent.

Investment advice

It is expected that the price of large panels will continue to rise, and midstream panel manufacturers are expected to continue to make profits. It is recommended to focus on: Rainbow Co., Ltd. (600707.SH), TCL Technology (000100.SZ), BOE A (000725.SZ).

Risk warning

There is a risk that demand recovery will fall short of expectations, industry competition will intensify, and panel factory production control cooperation will not continue.