Recently, Micron Technology released its latest financial report. Its performance far exceeded expectations and achieved a strong recovery. In terms of guidance, the Micron HBM3e will supply Nvidia H200 GPUs, which have now been mass-produced.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that recently, Micron Technology released the latest financial report, and its performance far exceeded expectations and achieved a strong recovery; in terms of guidance, the Micron HBM3e will supply Nvidia H200 GPUs, which have now been mass-produced. Looking at it now, Micron's 2024 HBM has been sold out, production capacity has almost been distributed in 2025, and the supply of products is in short supply. On the NAND side, Samsung Electronics plans to renegotiate prices with major mobile phone, PC, and server customers from March to April 2024, which is expected to increase the price of NAND flash memory by 15% to 20%. As the sector continues to recover and demand for products such as HBM and DDR5 grows, related companies are expected to fully benefit.
The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:
Major manufacturer performance: FY2024Q2 Micron's performance far exceeded expectations, and HBM3E was successfully introduced into Nvidia
Micron Technology released its latest financial report. FY2024Q2 achieved revenue of US$5.824 billion (previous guidance of US$5.1 to US$5.5 billion), +58% YoY, +23% month-on-month; gross profit margin of 20% (non-GAAP, previous guidance 11.5% ~ 14.5%), +51.4pcts YoY, +19.2pcts month-on-month; net profit (non-GAAP) of US$476 million, +2.057 billion US dollars month-on-month. The performance far exceeded expectations and achieved a strong recovery.
In terms of guidance, FY2024Q3 expects to achieve revenue of 6.4 to 6.8 billion US dollars, median value of +73.68% year over month; gross profit margin of 25% to 28%, median value of +42.5pcts year over year, and +6.5 pcts month-on-month. The guidance continues to be optimistic. On the HBM side, the Micron HBM3e will supply Nvidia H200 GPUs and has now achieved mass production. It is expected to boost the company's gross margin level in the future and contribute hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue in 2024. Looking at it now, Micron's 2024 HBM has been sold out, production capacity has almost been distributed in 2025, and the supply of products is in short supply.
DRAM: Order volume continues to rise in 2024, HBM is in short supply
In terms of total production capacity, according to Jibang Consulting, by the end of 2024, the overall DRAM industry plans to produce HBM TSV production capacity of about 250 K/m, accounting for about 14% of total DRAM production capacity (about 1,800 K/m). The original factory continues to increase investment, and the annual supply rate is expected to increase by 260%. In terms of share, demand for HBM continues to be strong. Orders in 2024 have basically been locked in by buyers. The share of total DRAM output is expected to increase from 8.4% in 2023 to 20.1% in 2024, growing rapidly.
By manufacturer, Samsung and SK Hynix have the most active production capacity plans until the end of 2024. The total production capacity of Samsung HBM will reach about 130 K/m (including TSV) by the end of the year; SK Hynix is about 120 K/m. Looking at HBM3, which is the mainstream product at this stage, SK Hynix currently has a market share of over 90%, and Samsung will catch up with the release of the AMD MI300 quarterly.
NAND: The utilization rate is gradually increasing, and the price is expected to increase by 15-20% in Q2
In terms of utilization rate, according to Sander News, with inventory adjustments and improved demand in the smartphone market, the operating rate of Samsung's Xi'an NAND flash memory factory continues to rise, reaching 70%; at the same time, Kioxia plans to increase the NAND utilization rate to 90% within March. Recently, major manufacturers have made frequent moves to increase the operating rate, and response demand is gradually improving. In terms of price, some manufacturers have recently revealed their intention to raise prices. Huirong Technology said that the 2024Q2 NAND price is expected to rise 20%. Samsung Electronics plans to renegotiate prices with major mobile phone, PC and server customers from March to April 2024, which is expected to drive the price of NAND flash memory to rise by 15%-20%.
Beneficial targets:
Open Source Securities pointed out that as the sector continues to recover and demand for products such as HBM and DDR5 grows, related companies are expected to fully benefit.
(1) Memory chips: Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH), Pran (688766.SH), Dongxin (688110.SH), Beijing Junzheng (300223.SZ), etc.
(2) Storage modules: Jiang Bolong (301308.SZ), Demingli (001309.SZ), Co-Creation Data (300857.SZ), BIG Storage (688525.SH), etc.
(3) Storage interface: Lanqi Technology (688008.SH), Juchen Co., Ltd. (688123.SH), etc.
(4) Storage and testing and HBM industry chain: Changdian Technology (600584.SH), Tongfu Microelectronics (002156.SZ), Huatian Technology (002185.SZ), Shannon Xinchuang (300475.SZ), etc.
Risk warning: Demand recovery falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, and the company's new product development progress falls short of expectations.