CICC is optimistic about Prudential (02378)'s long-term value repair space.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report stating that maintaining Prudential's (02378) “outperforming the industry” rating, the 2024 EPS forecast remained unchanged, and introduced the 2025 EPS and EVPS forecasts, which were 1.16 and 20.24 US dollars/share, respectively. The target price was lowered by 29% to HK$111, taking into account the weak liquidity of Hong Kong stocks and the overall sentiment of the Hong Kong stock market. The company's new business profit (NBP) in 2023 was +43.1% YoY (actual exchange rate, same below), better than market expectations by 6.4%, mainly due to better than expected market performance in Hong Kong, China; adjusted operating profit was +6.3% YoY, which is basically in line with market expectations.
According to the report, benefiting from the recovery in MCV after the resumption of customs, Prudential China's Hong Kong NBP surged 267% year on year, and the local customer base also had good growth (NBP +24% year over year). The year-on-year growth rate of the agency channel's annual premium equivalent sales (APE) under the MCV recovery was far better than that of banking insurance, but the increase in all items led to a year-on-year increase in APE contributions from savings products. Under the combined effects of channel and product structure, the profit margin of the new business in Hong Kong, China in 2023 was generally stable, -1.8ppt year over year. The bank expects the MCV business growth rate to slow down from a high base after entering 2Q24, but product structure improvements will help increase profit margins, and the local business is expected to continue to grow steadily.
The bank said that in 2023, Prudential will gain further market share in many markets, especially the Hong Kong market driven by the mainland customer business. It believes that this will benefit from the company's outstanding product development capabilities and channel management capabilities. These capabilities will be the foundation and driving force for the company to achieve steady endogenous growth in the future. The company's current valuation does not fully reflect long-term operating advantages, and the bank is optimistic about the company's long-term value restoration space.