The Zhitong Finance App learned that Everbright Securities released a research report saying that the starting point of the demand for lightweight materials for traditional automobiles is more about improving fuel efficiency and reducing pollutant emissions than the rigid requirements of traditional cars themselves; the demand for lightweight materials for flying cars is related to whether they can actually have safe flight and reliable battery life, which is the rigid demand for flying cars themselves. With the gradual mass production and promotion of flying cars, lightweight materials will be in the spotlight of more and more people. The main raw materials for flying cars include NdFeB, magnesium alloy, titanium alloy, carbon fiber, etc. As the industrialization of flying cars approaches, listed companies related to these raw materials are expected to benefit.

Recommended attention: Baowu Magnesium (002182.SZ) (magnesium alloy), Xingyuan Zhuo Magnesium (301398.SZ) (magnesium alloy), Baoti Co., Ltd. (600456.SH) (titanium alloy), Western Materials (002149.SZ) (titanium alloy), Dongfang Tantalum (000962.SZ) (titanium alloy), Chujiang New Materials (002171.SZ) (carbon fiber).

Incident: Recently, the low-altitude economy concept sector has seen strong gains.

The main views of Everbright Securities are as follows:

The long-term operation volume of global flying vehicles is expected to reach 160,000, and the market size will reach 100 billion

Urban road congestion continues, combined with the increasing maturity of electric flight technology, and the transportation of people or goods in urban areas through flying cars is gradually becoming a reality. According to Roland Berger's 2020 forecast, by 2050, nearly 160,000 flying cars will be put into use worldwide, and Ehang Intelligence recently quoted 2.39 million yuan for unmanned manned aircraft on Taobao. (Porsche, which also sells for one million, delivered 93,286 units in China in 2022) The demand for major metal materials per 10,000 flying cars accounts for the share of the total supply of each metal, ranked as follows: titanium alloy (0.27%) > NdFeB (0.04%) > magnesium alloy (0.02%).

Flying cars mainly involve metal materials including NdFeB (motor applications), magnesium alloys (lightweight materials), and titanium alloys (fuselage fasteners). Based on the unit consumption data of various metal materials and their global supply data, Everbright Securities calculated and compared the demand for each metal material in 10,000 flying vehicles as a share of its total supply. The results were titanium alloy (0.27%) > NdFeB (0.04%) > magnesium alloy (0.02%).

The unit consumption of a flying car for NdFeB, magnesium alloy, and titanium alloy is 10kg/vehicle, 10kg/vehicle, and 75.6kg/vehicle, respectively

(1) Based on the NdFeB single consumption hypothesis: the CityAirbus full-size demonstration machine (an EVTOL) is equipped with 8 Siemens SP200D motors (4 times the number of motors for new energy vehicles); (2) The basis for the magnesium alloy unit consumption assumption: Comparing the magnesium alloy unit consumption of a car, the average consumption of a North American bicycle is 15 kg, and the average consumption of domestic bicycles is 3-5 kg, taking the average value; (3) The basis for assuming that the titanium alloy fastener in an analogy aircraft accounts for about 6% of the total weight, and the steel material is used to reduce fasteners made of titanium alloy 30% weight, short finish The structure and weight reduction socket design can further reduce weight by 10%.

Titanium alloy is a potential solution for flying car fasteners

Everbright Securities believes that flying cars have high structural safety requirements, and that the stability requirements for fastening systems are higher than those of traditional aviation aircraft and automobiles. Traditional automobile fasteners usually use steel raw materials, and if the failure rate of automobile fastening structures is compared to eVTOL, it is unacceptable for eVTOL manufacturers. Titanium alloy is a high-strength and lightweight material that is a powerful alternative to steel.

Previously, Platinum also used titanium alloy+3D printing technology to cooperate with Xiaopeng Huitian's flying car research and development.

Demand for carbon fiber in flying cars is expected to account for about 2.16% of global carbon fiber supply in 2030 in 2022

According to StratviewResearch, demand for composites in the eVTOL industry will increase dramatically over the next six years, and is expected to surge from about 1.1 million pounds (about 499 tons) in 2024 to 25.9 million pounds (about 11748 tons) in 2030, an increase of about 20 times, of which carbon fiber composites account for about 90%. Combined with carbon fiber volume content in carbon fiber composites and related density data, the carbon fiber usage of eVTOL is expected to be about 7256.12 tons, accounting for 2022 The global supply of carbon fiber accounts for about 2.16%.

Compared with traditional cars, flying cars are more likely to become an important driving force for lightweight materials

Everbright Securities said that the starting point of the demand for lightweight materials for traditional automobiles is more to improve fuel efficiency and reduce pollutant emissions, rather than the rigid requirements of traditional cars themselves; flying cars' demand for lightweight materials is related to whether they can actually have safe flight and reliable battery life, and is the rigid demand for flying cars themselves. With the gradual mass production and promotion of flying cars, lightweight materials will be in the spotlight of more and more people.

Risk analysis: risk of flying vehicle industrialization falling short of expectations, risk of policy changes, risk of changes in flying vehicle technology routes, risk of theoretical assumptions not in line with reality, risk of upstream raw material price fluctuations, etc.