The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that after reviewing the development of the electric two-wheeler industry in 2023, domestic sales maintained steady growth, and the Matthew effect on the industry was obvious; the “oil to electricity” driving market expansion logic in overseas Southeast Asia continues, and the “electrification” trend in Europe and America has emerged. Looking ahead to the development of the industry, it is expected that there is still room for improvement in domestic industry concentration, which is beneficial to leading development. At the same time, we are optimistic that the market will gradually return to high-quality competition in the product dimension. The direction of product iteration is expected to be intelligent design and battery research and development; the overseas layout of domestic brands is gradually maturing, and they are about to enter a period of channel and production capacity expansion. Recommended targets are companies in product design, battery technology research and development, and forward-looking layout in overseas markets: Yadi Holdings (01585), Emma Technology (603529.SH), and No. 9 (689009.SH).

The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:

Domestic: The volume and price performance of the industry is expected to improve marginally, returning to the product dimension and high-quality competition may become a trend

In terms of total market volume, market sales are expected to maintain steady growth in 2023. There are three main influencing factors: (1) product price. Price is still the most important factor consumers are concerned about in the purchasing process. Product sales in different price segments in the industry are fragmented. Low price competition is mainly concentrated on low-end or old models, and sales in the middle and high-end market have not weakened significantly. (2) Good sales performance during the peak season. In the 2023 peak season, dealers believe that the overall market is still hot, accounting for 49%, and the peak sales season still performed well, which is an important factor underpinning the steady growth of sales in the industry. (3) Demand for the replacement of the new national standard is weak. The main reason is that after the “wave of swaps” ended, the market cooled down clearly, and many provinces chose to extend the new national standard; looking forward to the future trend of the new national standard, 2024 is the last year of the transition period. It is expected that local governments will tighten supervision to varying degrees, and are optimistic that swaps will release an increase in demand.

In terms of the competitive landscape, the industry is still an oligopolistic competition pattern. Yadi and Emma are strong; the 9th has settled on intelligent functions and channel expansion, and the logic of increasing market share is logical. Looking ahead to changes in the industry, the replacement of new national standards and natural renewal demand under high holdings are driven by steady growth in industry demand; in terms of price, various brands are currently actively promoting new high-end products and storing sodium-electricity-related technologies. It is expected that the industry will gradually break away from internal competition at low prices for products and enter high-end product intelligence initiated by the supplier brand side, leading sodium electricity to drive new upgrades and changes, nurturing a new round of price increase logic in the industry.

Overseas: The Southeast Asian market has considerable potential, and the “electrification” trend in the European and American markets is showing

Southeast Asia: The market expansion logic driven by “oil to electricity” continues to be implemented. Domestic brands Yadi and Emma are preparing products in advance in market channels; sodium electric technology can effectively solve the current pain points of heavy product quality and insufficient battery life, and is expected to promote iterative optimization of local products.

Europe and America: The trend of “electrification” is showing, and sales in the electric scooter market are growing strongly; brands such as Maverick, No. 9, and Yadi already have a forward-looking layout.

Company level: The Matthew effect of leading car companies is highlighted, and new car companies are breaking through with intelligence

Industry leaders Yadi and Emma widened a clear gap with other companies in the industry in multiple dimensions such as sales volume, revenue, and network establishment. Among them, Yadi still adopted a relatively active business strategy in 2023, and 2023H1 revenue and profit continued to grow at a high rate; in the context of the price war, Emma insisted on targeting profit, and the revenue growth rate slowed relatively. In terms of new-power car companies, the 2023H19 two-wheeler sales have already surpassed Mavericks, and the company's sales growth rate is far higher than that of the industry as a whole under the channel expansion logic. In comparison, Maverick's sales are under pressure, and the brand trend is clearly divided.

It is recommended to focus on high-quality enterprises with a forward-looking layout in product design, battery technology research and development, and overseas markets: (1) Yadi Holdings: a leader in the two-wheeler industry, forward-looking sodium-electric research and development. The 6th generation of Guanneng was successfully released, and 2024 may enter the product harvest period; products and channels in overseas markets continue to expand, and long-term growth can be expected. (2) Emma Technology: Equity incentives were released, showing firm confidence in development, and optimistic about its leading industry consumer insight and channel transformation to seize industry share. (3) Company No. 9: Leading the industry in the field of intelligence, optimistic about the bottom of performance reversal.

Risk warning:

Demand for terminals has declined, large-scale price wars have occurred in the industry, and the company's product promotion has fallen short of expectations.