The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that due to the Spring Festival peak, based on the January-February data, the cumulative business volume grew at a year-on-year rate: Shentong (40%) > Yunda (27%) > Yuantong (26.6%) > SF Express (4.85%), and the volume of SF Express excluding the Internet grew 14.52% year on year. Accessibility grew faster than previously expected by the market in the first two months, and SF Express (excluding SF) achieved a relatively rapid growth rate under a high base that effectively guaranteed demand for production and life recovery during the same period last year. Looking at the fundamentals of the industry, in terms of business volume, the express delivery industry is resilient on the demand side, and the business volume is expected to grow by about 10% to 15% in 2024. Leading express delivery companies are still undervalued.

Express delivery revenue growth rate of listed companies: Shentong leads the year-on-year growth rate. Revenue growth rate in January-February: Shentong (22.7%) > Yuantong (19.7%) > Yunda (8.4%) > SF Express (7.9%); SF Express did not include the revenue growth rate of 9.3%.

Single ticket revenue: Accessibility single ticket revenue declined year-on-year, with Yuantong slowing down the least. January-February single ticket revenue: Yuantong 2.48 yuan, -5.4% (-0.14 yuan); Yunda 2.27 yuan, -14.6% (-0.39 yuan); Shentong 2.21 yuan, -12.4% (-0.31 yuan); SF Express 16.3 yuan, up 2.9% year-on-year, with SF Express excluding net ticket revenue -4.51% year-on-year.

Investment advice:

1) Looking at the fundamentals of the industry, Huachuang Securities believes that in terms of business volume, the express delivery industry is resilient on the demand side, and the business volume is expected to grow by about 10% to 15% in 2024. Price side: The e-commerce express delivery industry no longer has a basis for a large-scale price war across the network. It is expected that industry supervision will superimpose the profit demands of terminal franchisees, and price competition may ease in 2024. Policy side: After the new express delivery regulations (the revised “Administrative Measures on the Express Delivery Market”) came into effect on March 1, they require that “without the user's consent, express delivery shall not be confirmed on behalf of the customer, and that express delivery to express terminal service facilities such as smart express boxes or express delivery service stations shall not be unauthorized.” The market is concerned about the changes it may bring to the industry. Huachuang Securities believes that at least in the future, competition in the express delivery industry will shift from the price level to the service level, which will help companies with strong comprehensive capabilities to further win.

2) Huachuang Securities's previous judgment on leading e-commerce express delivery companies: based on the similar valuation of PB/PE and infrastructure services, which did not reflect the medium- to long-term boom in demand in the express delivery industry. Yuantong's PB rebounded to about 1.8 times after the repair, and is still underestimated; however, Yunda is still around 1.2 times PB, which fails to reflect that Yunda's business volume growth rate once again exceeds the industry and future marginal changes or maximum; the leading company Zhongtong's “access” brings investment opportunities, and it is recommended to focus on Shentong's continued optimization efforts.

3) SF Express: Huachuang Securities emphasizes that SF Express is a complex of value* growth. In response to the market's focus on the company's revenue growth rate, the analysis suggests that there are two possible scenarios: the first is a beta opportunity, that is, if the overall economic recovery exceeds expectations, it will drive the company's time-sensitive express delivery revenue growth rate to exceed expectations; the second is an alpha opportunity. It is expected that in the second half of '24, the Ezhou Airport Transit Center will be put into operation for about 1 year. Through supply optimization, factors such as expanding the radiation range of time-sensitive products, price optimization, and domestic-international dual cycles will accelerate revenue.

Overall, Huachuang Securities believes that the company's current highlights are: One is at the bottom of the company's valuation since its listing. Second, we have always been active: focus on our core business, continue to explore internally, and strengthen our operating base. The third step is to look at Ezhou: Continued optimism about further building a domestic and international double cycle around Ezhou will help the company ecosystem take another leap forward.

Risk warning: The economy has declined, the growth rate of the industry's business volume has clearly slowed, and the price war has widened markedly.