The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Gemdale Corporation (SHSE:600383), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.
Following the latest downgrade, the nine analysts covering Gemdale provided consensus estimates of CN¥79b revenue in 2024, which would reflect an uneasy 20% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to be CN¥0.20, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥98b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.31 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Gemdale's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
The consensus price target fell 17% to CN¥4.22, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 20% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Gemdale is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.
After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Gemdale's business, like its declining profit margins. Learn more, and discover the 1 other flag we've identified, for free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.