Last week, you might have seen that Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited (HKG:874) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.2% to HK$20.10 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of CN¥76b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 5.3% to hit CN¥2.50 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings from five analysts is for revenues of CN¥80.7b in 2024. If met, it would imply a credible 6.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be CN¥2.49, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥79.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.67 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at HK$24.44, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings at HK$27.85 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$20.20. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings'historical trends, as the 6.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 6.6% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$24.44, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.