The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that currently leading wine companies are at a healthy level of inventory, “volume and price” fundamentals are stable, and overall feedback on spring sugar is good. In the short term, there is no shortage of catalysts such as price improvement, repurchase/increase holdings/dividends. Currently, sector valuations are still not high. It is recommended to focus on liquor labels with excellent certainty in the first quarterly report. The reason for the relatively good feedback on Spring Sugar: First, the Spring Sugar event this year is relatively close to the Spring Festival, and the Spring Festival mood is still good. Second, after the holiday season, most wine companies were relatively calm on the supply side and did not increase deliveries. Combined with the intensive price increase measures of most famous wine brands, the price market in the industry is stable, and expectations for the off-season are improving. Third, market expectations were low, and there was no significant month-on-month weakening from last year. Plans and feedback from companies such as Wulu and the channel level positively boosted confidence.

Recommended focus: First, focus on deterministic core leaders Maotai (600519.SH) (sufficient operating license, stable performance as Taishan, outstanding medium- to long-term value), Fenjiu (600809.SH) (sales are expected to continue rapid inertial growth, spring festival price recovery); secondly, the 1,000 yuan price with Wulu has a positive layout, marginal improvement, and there are differences in expectations. We recommend Wuliangye (000858.SZ) (improved price, improved operating margin) and Laojiao (000568.SZ) (with better return and shipment), and good and steady operation (The continuity of the report is still determined); continue to recommend regional leaders, Furui (000596.SZ) and Konseyuan (603369.SH) are relatively strong in the market and their performance is still certain.

Spring Sugar Watch: Investment promotion function weakens, and the atmosphere is weaker than last year

The main scenario was last year when “retaliatory” travel was liberalized, and wine companies and channels were enthusiastic about arranging and participating in the exhibition. Second, at present, the industry is still in the inventory digestion stage. Distilleries are beginning to make careful calculations, and channels are not very willing to sell new products. See for details:

Judging from the exhibition situation, wine companies have begun to make careful calculations. In recent years, leading brands have basically closed their investment channels, and sub-brands that are still investing mostly rely on their own endowments and accurate investment by local salesmen. Nagatail soy sauce, which had a high level of enthusiasm for attracting investment in the previous two years, is also undergoing an adjustment cycle. Therefore, in addition to popular hotels such as Jinjiang Hotel and Minshan Hotel, this year's Spring Sugar Hotel is generally better booked. Prices have not increased much compared to normal. Booth prices are also slightly lower than last year, and there are more booths for mid-range and low-end brands and long-tail brands.

Judging from the exhibition situation, the channel continues to watch carefully. The overall number of visitors during the spring sugar period decreased compared to last year (air tickets and hotel prices were relatively stable), and the scale of related activities was also reduced. There is a big difference in traffic between the different hotel fairs, and queues are still congested at popular hotels such as the Jinjiang Hotel. Channel vendors are generally cautious and less willing to act as agents for new products; it is more of an industry exchange.

Spring sugar feedback: However, the overall feedback from the spring sugar channel slightly exceeded expectations, and the improvement in price market expectations is the core

Judging from feedback from various channels, the post-holiday industry gradually entered the off-season. Although overall squeezing growth was clear, channel confidence and feedback were relatively good. In particular, in the mass price band within 300 yuan, demand resilience is still there. With the support of code scanning, it is better to open bottles of famous wine. The overall price market remains steady. The slight increase in batch prices has effectively boosted channel confidence, and inventory remains manageable. The probability of systemic risks occurring in the industry is low.

The reason the feedback is relatively good: First, the Spring Sugar event this year is close to the Spring Festival, and the Spring Festival mood is still good. Second, after the holiday season, most wine companies were relatively calm on the supply side. Coupled with intensive price increases by most famous wine brands, the price market in the industry is stable, and expectations for the off-season are improving. Third, market expectations were low, and there was no significant month-on-month weakening from last year. Plans and feedback from companies such as Wulu and the channel level positively boosted confidence.

Highlights of spring sugar: The difference between the core point and expectations is in the 1,000 yuan price range, Wuliangye is in the “price”, and the old cellar is in the “quantity”

In the past, Wulu mostly acted in concert in terms of volume and price strategies, and Guojiao mostly adopted a follow-up strategy. Currently, Wuliangye has chosen to reduce the volume and raise the price; Laojiao's strategy is to prioritize share, and the game is being strengthened with the price of 1,000 yuan.

Wuliangye: Short-term price targets and expectations are positive. According to channel feedback, 80% of payments are currently being paid, the delivery schedule is 45% faster than the same period last year, and inventory is low. The channel expects the short-term batch price of P5 to rise to 970 yuan. First, after price increases, channel profits increased month-on-month, increasing confidence and reluctance to sell. Second, Wuliangye's new marketing leaders have strictly investigated the sale of goods, maintained strength and no delivery after the holiday season, channel management measures were effective, and supply-side trading capacity was marginally strengthened. Third, if the current supply and demand trend continues, subsequent channels are expected to actively pay 1,019 yuan after the price increase, increasing the cost and thereby increasing the batch price.

Luzhou Laojiao: Good feedback on repayment and shipment. Laojiao's share strategy is prioritized. This year's off-season did not strictly control goods as in previous years. Repayment and shipping maintained year-on-year elastic growth. Channel feedback showed that high-end Guojiao sales also increased by single digits, low double digits (opening rate increased to 30%), channel costs have shrunk slightly, terminals are still scanning codes and opening bottles strongly, and price performance is relatively stable. The reason why the company's repayment and shipment feedback is good. In addition to factors such as the company's strategic layout, positive share priority, and channel momentum is still strong, the judgment is also related to factors such as the year-on-year effect of five-code red envelopes and general control of goods.

Risk warning: Consumer demand declined after the holiday season, inventory digestion fell short of expectations, competition intensified, etc.