According to a report published by J.P. Morgan Chase, recently there are reports that Hong Kong real estate stock prices have slowed down in the past month, causing Hong Kong real estate stock prices to outperform the Hang Seng Index by about 2% yesterday (18th). It is believed that transactions were unusually strong, driven by suppressed demand after the “Budget” was announced. Currently, trading has returned to a moderate slowdown in normalization. The bank expects that in the next one to two months, property market transactions will probably remain at a relatively high level. Among them, first-hand transactions are showing excellent performance due to developers being more active in launching new listings and providing more attractive discounts. Compared with second-hand transactions, second-hand transactions will slow down faster. Motong also pointed out that buyers from the mainland are more likely to choose new listings, which is also one of the main reasons. It is predicted that property prices may stabilize in the short term, but since the level of new supply inventory is still high, property prices may weaken again in the future.
In the short term, the bank believes that the stock price performance of Hong Kong developers may remain fluctuating. Among them, it is more optimistic about longevity and credit. In terms of domestic housing developers, it favors China Resources Land, China Overseas, CNOOC Properties, and Poly Property. It is relatively dismissive of Vanke, and suggests avoiding all private domestic housing.